Climate change and its relationship with El Niño and La Niña

Mitigation and adaptation are also terms that often get thrown around as a response to climate change. While both are ways to combat the global crisis, mitigation is simply a means to reduce the source of manmade greenhouse gasses. Adaptation, on the other hand, is a way for humans to build resilience against the disastrous effects of climate change and global warming. For instance, building flood barriers to prevent coastal flooding is a great way of adaptation while using renewable energy sources like solar power is a common mitigation strategy being adopted today. One way is no better than the other, as both are essential to counteract climate change. Solis urges citizens to calculate and track their carbon footprint to get a better understanding of their contribution to global warming and hopefully monitor and take steps to reduce it. “Each citizen should be aware of their contribution. If you drive short distances a lot or regularly eat meat, reducing those habits can help with mitigation. As for adaptation, climate change is already here. We are highly at risk, so we need to utilise all the available early-warning services and strategies that the government provides,” shares Solis.

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El Niño and La Niña are something many Filipinos are familiar with. These climate patterns are the heralds of our changing seasons—with the former bringing intense heat and the latter generating violent rainfall. The relationship between climate change, El Niño and La Niña has left many scientists puzzled for a long time, but now it’s all clear. Man-made emissions amplify the damage caused by these patterns. “El Niño and La Niña are part of natural climate variability. However, because of human activity, the severity and frequency of events have increased substantially. For instance, in 2000, El Niño episodes happened at least every 10 to 15 years. But now, these events can happen every five to seven years,” Solis shares.

Many industries suffer from the effects of climate change, but the biggest casualty is the agricultural sector—suffering PhP 9.50 billion in damage from El Niño on May 21. Dry spells brought by El Niño have been extended immensely and happen more frequently. Consequently, an increase in pests and diseases adds to the problems farmers have to solve. “During El Niño and La Niña, we could experience extreme rainfall events that lead to floods and landslides, causing environmental degradation or damage to infrastructure—both could result in deaths or injuries,” shares Solis. Droughts could also make prices of common goods rise as supplies dwindle. Prices of basic resources like water, vegetables, and meat constantly fluctuate, affecting millions of people nationwide. “Our marginal farmers and fisherfolk are highly impacted because they’re a part of the highly vulnerable communities at risk,” she adds.

While La Niña often brings good harvests for our farmers by replenishing water sources for crops. However, the heavy rains brought by La Niña threaten damage through flooding and landslides. In May 2024, the El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] Alert and Warning System was raised to La Niña watch in preparation for the coming season. Similar to the solution for El Niño, the Department of Agriculture (DA) believes that proper water and drainage management are the best ways to mitigate damage from La Niña. “It’s the same way we prepared for El Niño—closer coordination with farmers, local government units, and our counterparts from other government agencies,” says DA Assistant Secretary for Operations U-Nichols Manalo during an interview with the Manila Bulletin.

On July 12, 2024, Pagasa raised the ENSO Alert and Warning System to La Niña Alert—suggesting that La Niña will persist until the first quarter of 2025. “We are now at La Niña Alert and the probability of it striking is 66 per cent for September, October and November—more than 70 per cent in October, November and December, meaning we can declare La Niña any time,” says Solis.

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Many efforts have been made globally to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In 2015, the Paris Climate Accords was adopted by 196 parties at the United Nations Climate Change Conference with the goals of holding “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels” and “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.” Many countries, cities, and companies have established carbon neutrality targets to reduce their carbon footprint. Zero-carbon tech solutions are also being developed, projected to be competitive in sectors responsible for over 70 per cent of global emissions by 2030.

In the Philippines, national programmes on community disaster preparedness date back to 1978 when Presidential Decree No. 1566 was signed to create the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC). The council sought to ensure survival against typhoons, floods, earthquakes, epidemics, and other major calamities through proactive means. Their four-strategy framework consisted of mitigation, preparedness, response, and rehabilitation—opting for an all-hazards approach to disaster risk management. In 2009, under Republic Act No. 10121, the NDCC was transformed into the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), focusing on mitigation and adaptation. The NDCC’s approach has been reinforced to address the root causes of vulnerabilities while also ensuring the resilience of local communities. On January 22, 2024, Executive Order No. 53 was signed to reactivate and reconstitute the Task Force El Niño—a specialised team intended to formulate and implement measures to mitigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña. “The task force formulates strategic national action plans that solve different sectors’ concerns… The national government is currently doing what it needs to do to secure public safety. When the Pagasa ENSO Alert and Warning System was raised to El Niño Watch in March 2023, we’re only just now feeling the effects of El Niño. So the government already prepared for it a year in advance,” says Solis.

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Climate change is a buzzword for many, especially in the West, where it’s still a hot topic for debate. A main grievance that Solis harbours is the public’s stubbornness towards calamities. “Many people don’t believe what we say. They already feel the effects of extreme weather events; this is the new normal. We need to combat it or else many will suffer.” Being situated in the heart of Southeast Asia, the Philippines is constantly getting battered by typhoons all year round. Resiliency is no longer enough for us to survive. We need to embrace lifestyle changes and new technologies to mitigate these disasters. “This is not just an effort for the national government or international organisations. We as individual Filipinos need to help.” she quips.

The future looks promising as technology advances and new climate strategies for world leaders to utilise are unlocked. Electric vehicles are slowly but surely being pushed to be the norm, carbon taxes are being levied in many countries worldwide, and the wonders of nuclear energy are being thoroughly explored. While the smog outside our windows may be a horrible and harrowing sight, there is hope for a brighter tomorrow. “Nature has its own way to balance itself. It’s the people that need to adapt to the natural balance,” ends Solis.

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