Inflation Likely to Persist Until End of Year? Here's a Brief Explainer (Photo: Christiane Lois Dating/Getty Images)
Cover (Photo: Christiane Lois Dating/Getty Images)
Inflation Likely to Persist Until End of Year? Here's a Brief Explainer (Photo: Christiane Lois Dating/Getty Images)

The staggering market prices continue to bore a hole in the pockets of many Filipinos—a situation they have to endure until 2023, according to experts

Grocery carts have a way of telling me that the economy is up to no good in terms of easing hunger and poverty in the Philippines. In a not-so-distant past, I recall falling in line at my local grocer’s counter with families whose carts are brimming with goods—now I only see half-empty ones with alternatively cheaper brands. 

As a woman in her early 20s, I had only been made aware of the soaring market prices the time I started earning money of my own (a privilege I acknowledge and am grateful for). A few months ago, my little bubble of a fairytale popped when I paid PHP 80 for an unripe mango that barely filled my exaggeratedly small palm.

Sure, I was not oblivious to the trials and tribulations that the petite bourgeoise has been enduring and suffering from for a long time now, but to experience this for myself made me even more aware…and furious.

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What is happening?

Tatler Asia
Photo taken in Pasay, Philippines
Above Photo taken in Pasay, Philippines
Photo taken in Pasay, Philippines

A penny can only do so much for an ordinary Filipino earning a minimum wage salary (that’s only PHP 467.95 a day). What is even more painful to hear is that the inflation will likely remain “elevated for longer than expected” as we are at the mercy of global headwinds such as pressures in the global food market, recovery of domestic supplies ravaged by recent typhoons, expensive fuel, and whatnot. 

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the country's domestic inflation rate peaked last October at 7.7 per cent, the highest since December 2008. In the same month, Marcos Jr's administration, through a report by Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, projected that the Filipinos have yet to experience the worst as a projected recession in developed economies could come into full view in 2023.

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“Our analysis show sustained that sustained increases in inflation in 2022 and 2023 will cause a slowdown in the economic growth translating into gross domestic product levels lower by 0.6% in 2023 than the expected level had there been no sustained inflation shock,” Balisacan reported.

For many of us who can afford to get by every day, this is but a long strain of stress and a few tearful trips to the market; but for those in the bottom rungs of society, this is more than bad news—this is a life and death situation.

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What Lies Ahead?

Tatler Asia
A businessman holds in his hand a philippine peso money bag. nvestments, financing. Stimulating economic recovery. Providing business with preferential loans and support during the economic crisis. I
Above A businessman holds in his hand a philippine peso money bag. nvestments, financing. Stimulating economic recovery. Providing business with preferential loans and support during the economic crisis. I
A businessman holds in his hand a philippine peso money bag. nvestments, financing. Stimulating economic recovery. Providing business with preferential loans and support during the economic crisis. I

While the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) claims that the elevated inflation will likely decelerate in 2023 due to "easing global oil and non-oil prices, negative base effects from transport fare adjustments in 2022, and cumulative policy rate adjustments," many experts feel that the Philippine economy may only grow by just 4.1 per cent next year, below the government's 6.5 per cent target.

“If you look at the macroeconomic level, at the global economy, there are problems that raise the risk of a global recession. The strength of the US dollar is causing monetary tightening around the world,” said Economist Impact regional policy and insights head Andrew Staples in an interview with Philstar.

“Interest rates are going up and that means the debt is more expensive, which is ultimately in some economies going to choke off economic growth. The number one mission for most central banks is to choke off inflation, which has reached unprecedented levels we haven’t seen in decades,” he added.

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Jove Moya
Senior Feature Writer, Tatler Philippines
Tatler Asia

Jove holds a degree in Journalism and is currently pursuing graduate studies in Philosophy at the University of the Philippines–Diliman. She has flair for in-depth, interview-driven stories that explore politics and culture, shaped by her background in national broadsheets. 

When she’s not on assignment, Jove spends her days painting, sipping lemonade, and walking her dog, Jupiter. She can often be seen in Escolta with a film camera in hand, browsing novelty shops in search of rare memorabilia. For leads, reach her at Jove@tatlerphilippines.com.