Ryan Coogler’s movie ‘Sinners’: what its record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations mean for awards night

Apparently, breaking the record for the most number of Oscar nominations bodes well for the director (see: Titanic, La La Land and Gone with the Wind). But Ryan Coogler still faces stiff competition from One Battle After Another’s Paul Thomas Anderson, who has racked up 11 Oscar nominations across directing, screenwriting and producing over the years—but has yet to win one.

Awards pundits are split between the two. If the movie Sinners takes home Best Picture, will the Academy stick to tradition and award Coogler the Best Director trophy as well? Or could voters split the honours, awarding Best Picture and Best Director to different contenders?

See more: 5 Ryan Coogler movies with Michael B Jordan, from ‘Fruitvale Station’ to ‘Sinners’

Currently leading the pack is Michael B Jordan for his roles as twin brothers Smoke and Stack in Sinners. Bolstered by his recent Actor Award win, he has overtaken early odds favourite Timotheé Chalamet, who won at the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards.

Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme was so impressive that people were willing to look the other way when he promoted the film with a Marty-esque swagger. But after missing out at the BAFTAs and losing to Jordan at The Actors Awards, the Sinners actor emerged as the frontrunner for the Oscars. (It also doesn’t help Chalamet's case that he let his intrusive thoughts on the ballet and opera get the better of him during the campaign season.)

With Wunmi Mosaku taking home the BAFTA and Teyana Taylor winning the Golden Globe, the Best Supporting Actress race is shaping up to be yet another showdown between the movie Sinners and One Battle After Another.

However, awards watchers are also keeping an eye on Weapons star Amy Madigan, who picked up Best Supporting Actress at both the Critics’ Choice Awards and The Actors Awards.

See more: ‘Weapons’ blends the structure of ‘Magnolia’ with supernatural terror

Sinners and One Battle After Another appear to be going toe-to-toe in the Best Supporting Actor category, as well. While Jacob Elordi won the Critics’ Choice Award for Frankenstein and Stellan Skarsgård took home the Golden Globe for Sentimental Value, some industry observers are predicting a Delroy Lindo win.

However, with victories at both The Actors Awards and the BAFTAs, One Battle After Another star Sean Penn could have a slight edge.

Having already bagged Best Original Screenplay at the BAFTAs and WGA Awards, Coogler appears to be the frontrunner in this category. The closest competition could come from Sentimental Value, a family drama written by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier.

But with a screenplay that’s fresh, provocative and genre-defying—somehow managing to blend horror, historical drama and a musical—people are placing their bets on Sinners to win.

Hamnet’s Nina Gold found the perfect Shakespeare and Agnes in Paul Mescal and Jessie Buckley, while Jennifer Venditti demonstrated an almost preternatural instinct for talent when she cast Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme. But it’s legendary casting director Francine Maisler who is the odds-on favourite to win in this new Oscar category.

Bringing together the talented and charismatic actors for the movie Sinners was another casting coup for Maisler, whose credits include 12 Years a Slave, Succession, The Revenant and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune films, among many others. And if Sinners’ best ensemble win at The Actors Awards is any indication, Maisler is well-positioned to take home the first-ever Best Casting trophy.

When it comes to creating rich, lavish worlds from the ground up, it’s hard to beat Guillermo del Toro. With Frankenstein winning this category at multiple pre-Oscar ceremonies, it is currently the top pick for Best Production Design. That said, Sinners is widely tipped as the next likely winner.

It’s another close fight between the movie Sinners and One Battle After Another for this one. While Arkapaw’s hallucinatory, dream-like work on the time-bending musical sequence tells a story in and of itself, One Battle After Another’s Michael Bauman focuses on delivering authenticity that makes the scenes more immersive.

Having racked up several Best Cinematography accolades in the lead-up to Oscar night, insiders are giving Battle a slight edge over Sinners, but it’s still anybody’s game.

One Battle After Another sits this one out. Sinners’ main rival in this category is Frankenstein, which has already picked up wins at the BAFTAs and Critics’ Choice Awards. It’s essentially a face-off between two distinct gothic aesthetics: 1930s Southern Gothic versus 1850s Gothic Victorian.

The expert editing in Sinners uses intercutting and flashbacks to weave together timelines, heighten the tension—it is a horror story after all—and set the film’s overall tone. However, awards watchers currently favour One Battle After Another to win in this category, with some suggesting that F1 could pull off a surprise upset.

According to awards experts, the one to beat in this category is Frankenstein. Still, Sinners’ vampires could give the monster a run for his money. Beyond the film’s creatures, the hair and make-up team behind Sinners also shines in crafting time-period looks that transport audiences back to the past.

If there’s an Oscar nomination that F1 would be a shoo-in for, it would be Best Sound. It’s the way the film’s sound editing lets audiences feel the roar of the cars’ engines in their bones that puts F1 at the front of the race. 

Meanwhile, the sound design of the movie Sinners doesn’t just provide a backdrop—it helps define both the film's tone and the era it’s set in, making it the second pick to take home the trophy.

Here’s another category with a clear frontrunner—James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash. The Avatar films are famous for revolutionising performance capture and are a visual effects spectacle.

Nonetheless, despite not being as VFX-heavy as the other films nominated in this category, the work Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean put into capturing Michael B Jordan’s double performance as twin brothers Smoke and Stack in Sinners makes a strong case for the film’s Best Visual Effects Oscar nomination.

When you make a film about the supernatural powers of music, you can bet its score is going to be the frontrunner coming into the Oscars. It also helps that Ludwig Göransson has already won in this category twice before—for Black Panther and Oppenheimer.

The deeply Southern blues-inflected score that underpins the entire film is both affecting and effective, helping bring to life the story Ryan Coogler set out to tell.

Both needle drops from the movie Sinners and Netflix’s massive hit KPop Demon Hunters are steeped in supernatural lore and mythology, but the question is whether the soulful blues track from Coogler’s Sinners possesses enough magic to take down “Golden”, the inescapable banger from KPop Demon Hunters.

As the Oscars approach, the movie Sinners remains one of the most formidable contenders of the night with its record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations. From major awards like Best Picture and Best Actor to a sweep of technical categories, it has already cemented its place in awards-season history.

Whether it ultimately dominates the ceremony or splits the trophies with its rivals, one thing is certain: Sinners has reshaped the race—and all eyes will be on it when the Academy Awards winners are announced.

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