Cover Residents of Talisay, Batangas province, Philippines watch Taal Volcano erupting in January 2020. Local authorities began evacuating residents near the volcano when it started spewing ash up to a kilometre high

The Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. How exactly should it gear up for cataclysms? How much should disaster preparedness be the work of government—and of civilians?

Sam Ramos-Jones, whose work immerses him in risk analysis and crisis management for businesses in the Asia-Pacific region, sizes up predictions and gives it to us straight; this was written early January 2020. 

As an archipelago of over 7,641 islands at the junction of several tectonic plate boundaries, the Philippines is especially susceptible to natural disasters. It ranked 3rd in the 2018 World Risk Index of most disaster-prone countries, while the World Bank estimates that we lose US$3.5 billion in assets each year due to typhoons and earthquakes. Ominously, the 2019 Global Peace Index ranked the Philippines as having the world’s highest vulnerability to natural hazards brought about by the effects of climate change.

The events of 2020 have put some of those vulnerabilities into sharp relief—with Taal Volcano (Batangas province) violently stirring to activity on 12 January, and the international public health emergency that is COVID-19, still unfolding.

Taal’s eruption resulted in days of travel disruptions and the loss of swathes of agricultural crops. It has momentarily dampened livelihoods around Taal Lake that depend on tourism. Overall, however, the effects have not been catastrophic—certainly far less disruptive than Pinatubo’s 1991 eruption.

Coronavirus has proven much more consequential and its demand-side effects on travel and tourism are already being felt. This crisis is certain to get worse before it gets better. It has become increasingly obvious that containment will not succeed, raising a global pandemic. But eventually, this too shall pass. The pathogen’s mortality rate is lower than both SARS and MERS and vaccines are already in the pipeline for human trials.

Taal and COVID-19 both underscore important lessons on preparing for worse events in the future.

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TAAL VOLCANO ISLAND, PHILIPPINES - JANUARY 14: Houses near Taal Volcano's crater are seen buried in volcanic ash from the volcano's eruption on January 14, 2020 in Taal Volcano Island, Batangas province, Philippines. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology raised the alert level to four out of five, warning that a hazardous eruption could take place anytime, as authorities have evacuated tens of thousands of people from the area. An estimated $10 million worth of crops and livestock have been
Above Houses in Taal Volcano Island, Batangas province, Philippines are buried in volcanic ash from the volcano’s eruption on 14 January 2020

We have seen vividly how in times of crisis, food, water, and medical supplies will be in high demand and short supply. These problems will be compounded by people using emergency supplies incorrectly (think about face masks). The best thing an individual and/or an organisation can do is to have emergency supplies ready and stored (at home, in one’s vehicle, and at the office) far in advance of the need to use them. Prioritise an emergency supply of water, prescription medicine, and food in that order. Then start working on your “Go Bag,” which should include items like a first aid kit and radio.

Having emergency response plans for individuals, families, and organisations provides a framework that does not depend on new information or outside communication. The simplest and most important version of this is the family emergency plan. If your family cannot communicate with each other, as is likely in the aftermath of a major earthquake, does the family know where they will meet and the places that they are likely to take shelter? Similar plans can be replicated at corporate levels.

The good news is that disaster preparedness is partially transferable, meaning that being prepared for one scenario means you are more likely to be prepared for other types of disasters. Theoretically, if you are ready for the ‘Big One,’ you’ll be in good shape for more minor disasters as well.

That ‘Big One,’ is the scenario that keeps security and safety practitioners in Manila up at night—the risk of a major earthquake striking Metro Manila.

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PORAC, PHILIPPINES - APRIL 23: Rubble lies about a church damaged in a 6.3 magnitude earthquake, on April 23, 2019 in Porac in Pampanga province, Philippines. A 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck central Philippines on Monday, killing at least eight people and injuring 50, after buildings collapsed at several areas in Luzon island including Metro Manila, which suffered power outages. Clark International Airport was temporarily closed after part of the ceiling of the terminal caved in. Residents in Manila descr
Above Rubble lies about a church damaged in a 6.3 magnitude earthquake, on 23 April 2019 in Porac, Pampanga province, Philippines

Metro Manila is bisected by the West Valley Fault (WVF), which we know is storing energy. The last time it released that energy was in 1658. “It might happen in our lifetime; it might take longer. But the more prudent thing to do is prepare,” said Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) Director Renato Solidum back in 2014.

So, what exactly should we be preparing for? If (and when) the fault releases its energy again, scientists estimate (based on the length of the fault line) that an earthquake with maximum magnitude of 7.2 would occur. The damage and casualty estimates of this scenario are virtually apocalyptic:

1. The 2004 Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA), and PHIVOLCS surmised that a 7.2 magnitude earthquake would destroy 38 per cent of homes and a third of public buildings, cause 34,000 deaths immediately and a further 18,000 due to the outbreak of hundreds of fires across the city.

2. A more recent study, the Greater Metro Manila Area Risk Assessment Project (GMMA-RAP) of 2014, conducted by the Philippine Government and the Commonwealth of Australia, largely confirms the findings of the MMEIRS. It predicts that a 7.2 magnitude earthquake across the West Valley Fault system would result in over 37,000 deaths and almost PhP2.5 trillion (US$49 billion) in economic losses—the equivalent of 14.8 per cent of the Philippines’ 2018 GDP.

Sounds scary—and if (and when) the earthquake occurs, it certainly will be. Critical infrastructure, including telecommunications, power, water utilities, land, sea, and air transportation links, will all be heavily damaged. Hospitals will be overwhelmed with the injured, and morgues will lack capacity for the dead. It will be chaotic and very confusing.

But steps can be taken right now, at multiple levels, to prepare for this event and others like it.

On the political front, the current disaster preparedness and response framework is fraught with issues. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) diffuses responsibilities across a hodgepodge of government agencies and national and local jurisdictions. Where responsibility is diffused, so too is accountability. Lack of centralised planning and command-and-control lead to uneven implementation and oftentimes poor coordination.

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WUHAN, CHINA - JANUARY 24: (£¨ CHINA OUT£©) Construction workers drive excavators at the site of a new 1,000-bed field hospital being built to accommodate the increasing number of coronavirus patients on January 24, 2020 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The hospital is set to be completed by February 3, 2020. (Photo by Getty Images)
Above Construction workers drive excavators at the site of a new 1,000-bed field hospital being built to accommodate the increasing number of coronavirus patients on 24 January 2020 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.

In the words of President Rodrigo R Duterte, “We need a truly empowered department characterised by a unity of command, science-based approach, and full-time focus on natural hazards and disasters to take charge of disaster risk reduction.” This call for reform to establish disaster preparedness and response as a cabinet-level portfolio is a welcome and overdue development, one that will hopefully continue to make strides in Congress.

According to a 2018 study by the Commission on Audit (CoA), the NCR had just 91 fire trucks, equivalent to only 20 per cent of the ideal number of fire trucks relative to population. Addressing equipment gaps such as this (and crucially, ensuring that skills and training line up with material assets) would be another welcome development.

Notwithstanding, in a major crisis, we cannot pin our hopes on the government. Much of the responsibility for getting through the beginning of a major disaster will fall on the shoulders of individuals. Individual self-sufficiency in terms of food water and emergency medical supplies will come in handy in any type of contingency. Additionally, having emergency plans for different types of scenarios will give individuals, families, and businesses another tool to get through a major crisis.

Businesses should invest in proper Business Impact Assessments (BIAs) to understand how they will be affected by different unpleasant scenarios. They should identify vulnerabilities that can addressed in advance of those.

Ideally, business resiliency should also take into account employee family welfare. In a major crisis, most employees will not go back to work until they are confident that their loved ones are safe—this behaviour can be seen in both the private and public sector.

There’s a well-known saying (often misattributed to Churchill): “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” This should be our attitude in the face of any crisis—domestic or global—taking each as an opportunity to learn and prepare to face the next one on better footing.

Sam Ramos-Jones is the director for business development at PSA Philippines Consultancy (PSA). He earned a BA in Political Science with a concentration in Political Economy from Yale University and is a graduate of the Management Development Program of the Asian Institute of Management’s School of Executive Education. Sam is the grandson of Former President Fidel V Ramos and is a member of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations (PCFR) and the Ramos Peace and Development Foundation (RPDEV).

PSA is a leading business risk and security consultancy that has been operating from Manila for the last two decades. Please e-mail sam@psaconsultancy.com for inquiries.


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